Introduction
As we all know, the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are the traditional peak seasons for the textile industry. In September, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2021, my country’s textile and clothing exports were 291.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.29%.
Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was US$12.409 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.65%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.92%; the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was US$16.723 billion, a year-on-year increase 9.84%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.98%.
From January to September 2021, my country’s cumulative export value of textiles and clothing was US$227.594 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, of which the cumulative export value of textiles was US$105.179 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.83%; the cumulative export value of clothing was US$122.415 billion, A year-on-year increase of 25.13%. Christmas is only two months away. Some companies have reported that overseas orders are being placed one after another. Weaving factories are crowded and lined up, and dyeing factories are also in a state of liquidation. The number of foreign trade orders has increased significantly. Many weaving and dyeing factories have even stated that they will no longer accept orders and will digest existing orders first.
Production costs remain stable
Crazy polyester finally came out in late October It suddenly braked and maintained a high and stable state. Although it was only a slight loosening, the price of 150DPOY loosened slightly and fell back slightly by 25 yuan/ton, but this was indeed a new breakthrough. Due to the previous daily rising trend of polyester prices, let Downstream weaving companies have become resistant, and most of them adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude.
Figure 1. Polyester price trend chart
Polyester Silk production and sales have been sluggish for a long time, but at present, the profit of polyester yarn has reached over 1,000 yuan, and there is enough room for enterprises to benefit. In addition, PTA is currently in a high and volatile trend, and the price of polyester yarn will tighten in a narrow range in the short term.
Figure 2, polyester profit trend chart
Shipping freight dropped
Starting from mid-to-late September, with the reduction of domestic production capacity and export volume, the shipping market price fell sharply. The phenomenon of “demand” has obviously improved. Looking at the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index yesterday, it fell to the lowest level this month. As shown in Figure 3, the index fell by 4257, a decrease of 153, a decrease of 3.5%. The reason is that the freight rate down.
Figure 3. Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index
The drop in sea freight has given foreign trade companies a chance to breathe. During the “Christmas” order period, foreign trade companies have more orders, the gray fabric market is in a hot state, and the enthusiasm for textile foreign trade has greatly increased, which now affects foreign trade companies. The only factors are low domestic production capacity and delayed delivery, which makes many companies wait and see about foreign trade orders. I learned from the market that due to the tight delivery time, some companies can only deliver goods by air freight, which also increases the cost of the company in disguise.
Relaxation of production restrictions
On the 22nd, the Jiangsu region received information that the current production restriction model was suspended on the 25th, and the new production restriction model is pending notification. According to From market research, we learned that the company did not receive news of production restrictions on the 25th and 26th, and the factory was operating normally. The increase in the start-up rate has greatly encouraged textile people. With the increase in the supply of gray fabrics, the tight supply situation in the market will be alleviated.
Figure 4, latest power restriction notice
Supply and demand relationship After the epidemic is alleviated, the current rising gray fabric prices and dyeing fees in the market will be alleviated. The current increase in gray fabric prices is mainly affected by the cost end and low inventory status. The supply in the market is tight, giving weaving manufacturers the confidence to increase prices. Once If the supply keeps up and polyester prices remain stable, weaving manufacturers will not have enough confidence. Only then will the profits of traders caught between rising gray fabric prices and rising dyeing fees be able to increase.
September finally ended the decline in foreign trade exports and ushered in an increase, which can be regarded as a “shot in the arm” for foreign traders. However, the market is still unclear in the later period. First, the phenomenon of postponement is common in the market, and limited Although electricity is temporarily lifted and crude oil prices are strong, although PTA production capacity has increased, it will still operate at a high level driven by the cost side. The price of polyester yarn will not fall significantly. The price of gray fabrics and dyeing fees will increase, and the profit margin of the textile market will be �With almost all compression, foreign trade companies still need to remain cautious in the market outlook and should focus on stocking up at this stage.
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