The main contradiction in the current polyester industry chain lies in the upstream PX link. The price of PX has continued to fall since its launch, mainly due to the decline in the gasoline gap and the weakening of its own supply and demand margin. The peak season for gasoline consumption in the United States is over, and the gasoline crack price gap has entered a downward channel since August. One of the core factors that supported the high valuation of PX in the early stage was the high profit of gasoline. The demand for aromatic hydrocarbon blending diverted chemical raw materials, resulting in a low operating rate of PX short-process technology and a certain bottleneck in the overall supply. With the rapid accumulation of gasoline inventories in the United States, the support for aromatics prices from oil adjustment demand has weakened, and the significantly weakening gasoline gap has brought greater adjustment pressure to PX prices. From the supply and demand side, on the supply side, the parking device was restarted in the early stage, and the PX load increased compared with the previous period. On the demand side, due to the temporary load reduction of some PTA devices for maintenance, the load has fallen, and the short-term supply and demand of PX has been under pressure. In terms of valuation, the price difference between PX and naphtha is US$349/ton, and the price difference between PX and Brent crude oil is US$342/ton. PX profits are compressed, and PX is significantly weaker than crude oil.
Looking at the market outlook, we are still optimistic about PX. The main reason is that the supply and demand of PX is tight in the long term and there is not much circulating inventory. Previously, it was mainly due to the high relative valuation. The current gasoline gap has fallen back to the historical low of the same period in recent years. PXN has shrunk and PXN has fallen. When it reaches $300/ton, you can actively pay attention to PX buying opportunities.
In terms of PTA, supply has shrunk and demand is stable. It is stronger than PX in the short term. PTA processing fees have recovered slightly. However, since the supply contraction is phased, the basis and processing fees are not very elastic. In terms of profit distribution in the industrial chain, PX has been weak recently, and the profits of PTA and polyester have recovered slightly. However, PX profits are still relatively better. The room for repair of PTA processing fees is expected to be limited, and the absolute price follows PX.
In terms of ethylene glycol, from the perspective of the balance sheet, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are relatively balanced, and the driving force is not obvious. The pressure from above lies in the high inventory, and the support lies in the relatively low valuation. If it falls back to around 4,000 yuan/ton, you can consider buying, but the upward elasticity is insufficient.
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