The price of polyester filament at the end of September increased with the increase in cost. High. On the first day when the polyester factory released the news of price increases, polyester yarn production and sales surged. In the following days, the polyester yarn trading atmosphere was heated due to the “buying up” mentality of downstream companies, and polyester yarn stocks also dropped significantly. Today, one month later, polyester filament production and sales have been below 50% for five days. Production and sales have continued to be sluggish, and inventory has begun to rise, returning to 20 days of inventory.
Figure 1. Polyester stock trend chart
“ The double-edged sword of “buying up” overdraws the market in advance
The mentality of downstream enterprises to “buy up but not down” can be said to have been thoroughly understood by polyester factories. After the polyester factory issued a polyester price increase announcement in the morning of September 23, The increase continued in the afternoon, and in the following days there was a daily increase. Downstream weaving companies were worried that the increase would continue, and when their strength allowed, they stocked up a large amount of raw materials to purchase raw materials.
Picture 2. Polyester yarn production and sales trend chart
“Buying up” will indeed happen in a short period of time It has brought good production and sales data to polyester factories, but can this data really stand the test? Let’s take a look. From Figure 2, we can clearly see that as time goes by, most weaving companies have prepared They have good raw materials and have the goods in hand. They are in a wait-and-see state about the market situation of polyester yarn. No matter how the price of polyester yarn increases, it has nothing to do with them. The production and sales of polyester yarn can only be reduced steadily, and the polyester factory has been overdrawn in advance. future market.
Downstream resistance is rising
Of course it is not just the polyester factory itself that has overdrawn the market in advance. On the other hand, we have to look at As shown in Figure 3, the rising trend of polyester prices is rising in a straight line. Without any hesitation, weaving manufacturers cannot catch up with the price of gray fabrics even if they follow the cost increase. The speed at which the wire rises.
The deserted production and sales are behind the rapid rise of resistance among downstream weaving manufacturers. According to From market research, we learned that the current price increase of gray fabrics for polyester products is around 15%. We then see the price of polyester filament. Compared with the price before the price increase last month, the price increase of conventional polyester filament is: 150D FDY increase 21.9%, 150D POY increased by 25.5%, and 150D DTY increased by 23.6%. It can be clearly seen from the data that the downstream price increases are completely unable to fill the profit difference, which makes most weaving companies choose the purchasing strategy of on-demand procurement. Wait for polyester prices to fall.
Picture 3. Polyester price trend chart
Insufficient production capacity in the early stage is “beyond the limit”
From the demand side, the objective factors currently faced by weaving companies It also affects the production and sales of polyester yarn. A series of power restriction measures in the early stage caused the startup rate of weaving companies to drop sharply. After the shutdown mode stabilized, the startup rate was only around 58%, which basically eliminated half of the production capacity.
Picture 4. Trend chart of operating rate
The reduction in production capacity has caused weaving companies to consume more raw materials. It was also halved. Due to the high inventory in the early stage, most weaving companies chose to release their own inventory first. The downstream demand for raw materials slowed down, and no one cared about the high-end polyester yarn. However, on the 25th, the Jiangsu region issued a notice to suspend production restrictions and the subsequent production restriction model was undecided. This notice was interpreted as saying that production restrictions will be relaxed, and the current operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to the state before production restrictions. The current operating rate At 78%, the start-up rate is bound to alleviate the current “tight supply” situation, and the demand for polyester yarn will also increase.
At present, the sluggish production and sales of polyester yarn are mainly due to the early “buying increase” Affected by the resistance in the overdraft market and downstream, with the current weakening of cost ends such as MEG and PTA, the price of polyester yarn has lost the support of the cost end. The high-end polyester yarn has given up and ushered in a general decline today. From this point of view, polyester yarn The days of silk sales once a week are coming back.
</p
