Since last weekend, the price of polyester filament yarn has finally stabilized. The downstream production restrictions have been relaxed, and the market supply has increased accordingly. Today, the price of polyester yarn has been slightly loosened and has been on a downward trend.
The weakening cost side is like playing on a “slide”
Recently, MEG has begun to show a sharp downward trend. Previously, due to the “crazy” rapid rise of coal, it encountered a “combination punch”, falling by nearly 40% in just four days. The obvious drop in price also greatly affected the price of downstream MEG, which has dropped by more than 1,000 in the past week. Yuan.
Table 1 Ethylene glycol
The day before yesterday, WTI crude oil futures stood at 85 US dollars / barrel , setting a new high in recent years. Crude oil futures were at $84.65 per barrel yesterday, and there is still a slight upward trend.
However, PTA does not seem to rise all the way with the skyrocketing oil prices, which is in clear contrast to the sharp decline of MEG. Previously, due to the power restriction policy, the load of PTA manufacturers gradually declined, and the continuous increase in costs caused the price of PTA to continue to rise. However, recently, the policy has gradually been relaxed, and the load has increased by 20% compared with the previous period. The production capacity has been greatly increased, and the price has also been slightly increased. It has declined and is running at a weak and high level.
Table 2 PTA price chart
Table 3 PTA factory load
Polyester yarn was booming in the early stage with the “rising voice” of the upstream industry, and it was making rapid progress all the way. The price of polyester yarn continues to rise, exceeding the highest value at the beginning of this year. Downstream purchases have increased many times, causing the originally high inventory to decline rapidly. Compared with September 26 last month, the price of POY150D has risen to 9,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,600 yuan/ton. , the current price of FDY150D is 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY150D has increased to 10,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900 yuan/ton.
The rapid rise in prices has led to a rapid turnaround of polyester profits. Compared with the previous month, POY150D Profits increased by 1341.87%, FDY150D profits increased by 729.4%, and DTY150D profits increased by 449.21%. Now that the cost side is weakening, polyester yarn prices are still stable, resulting in polyester yarn manufacturers gaining high profit margins. This is also a “double-edged sword”. While the profits are high, polyester yarn will lose support from the cost side.
Table 4 Recent polyester filament price list
Table 5 Polyester Profit Trend Chart
The demand side is waiting for support, will polyester prices be reversed?
Previously, due to external policy reasons, a large number of inventories of weaving enterprises were cleared, and the market was in a low inventory state. Overlay buying of downstream weaving enterprises was dominated by rising sentiment, which gave polyester The factory is more confident, and the price of polyester yarn continues to rise.
Table 6 Inventory chart of weaving enterprises
However, it is now the end of October. The previously turbulent policies have gradually been relaxed, and there is news from the downstream that Jiangsu has canceled the wheel stop limit. According to electricity news, the operating rate in some areas of Jiangsu has increased significantly, and the current operating rate has rebounded to 78%. The gradual recovery of the operating rate will gradually increase the supply and alleviate the tight supply situation in the market.
Table 7 Weaving startup rate Trend Chart
In general, the support of polyester yarn on the cost side has gradually weakened, and external policies are also relaxing. High prices have also caused rising resistance among downstream buyers. Polyester production and sales have been sluggish recently, and inventories have begun to rise again. For polyester filament manufacturers, they will make some profit concessions to a large extent in the later period. Negotiations have begun on some products a few days ago, and the focus of negotiations has also moved down to 50-75 yuan/ton. Coupled with the advent of “Double Eleven” and other days, downstream orders have also increased, and terminal market conditions will also pick up. It is expected that polyester yarns will tighten in a narrow range in the short term, and the loosening of polyester yarn prices will also bring a glimmer of hope to the downstream.
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