At the end of January, inquiries and purchases by domestic cotton textile companies and middlemen gradually weakened and even pressed the pause button. Small and medium-sized textile companies, weaving factories, clothing companies, and foreign trade companies also successively issued holiday notices. Therefore, the industry generally judged that Zheng Cotton CF2105 contract will trade sideways near 15,000 yuan/ton before the holiday.
However, on February 4, cotton futures in both internal and external markets suddenly became turbulent. As the main ICE contract exceeded 84 cents/pound, it set a new high in two and a half years (the intraday high was 84.82 cents). / pound), Zheng Mian CF2105 also once again opened the space above 15,500 yuan / ton.
In the absence of actual spot transaction support, the epidemic is still scattered and the domestic epidemic situation in 2020/21 In a situation where cotton supply exceeds demand, Zheng Cotton and ICE surprised the market by rising sharply. Why did Zheng Mian suddenly pull up strongly in a calm market atmosphere? The author judges that the following points are critical:
First, the central bank continues to release liquidity, and funds are very sufficient before the Spring Festival. The central bank has carried out reverse repurchases for three consecutive trading days since January 29, achieving a net investment of 274 billion yuan, reflecting its policy intention to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity; secondly, regardless of cotton processing enterprises, traders or cotton textiles , clothing factories are very optimistic about the production and sales situation in 2021, and the market sentiment is very optimistic. On the one hand, the growth of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States has been contained, the global economy, trade, transportation, exchanges, etc. are expected to continue to recover, and textile and clothing consumption will also usher in strong growth; on the other hand, a large number of domestic cotton textile companies have low raw material inventories, so saving After the resumption of work and production, cotton procurement is expected to be in full swing;
Thirdly, all parties have recently introduced regulatory measures to reduce the overheating of the property market, stock market, and funds, which has led to the overflow of a large amount of funds and the overlay of monetary policies. As easing continued, some excess liquidity was transferred to the futures market.
Some cotton-related companies believe that the surge in Zheng cotton before the holiday may cause difficulties for downstream companies to receive orders after the holiday. In addition, the expectation of RMB appreciation in 2021 is still very strong, so the current price of cotton will rise sharply or it will be overdrafted. , downstream acceptance and digestion ability in the third quarter, the premature start of the market will play a role in limiting the rebound of cotton prices in the future. </p
