In 2020, the PTA futures market was affected by factors such as the epidemic, the sharp decline in crude oil, the release of new production capacity, and poor downward demand. The market experienced a sharp decline from the beginning of the year to April, and then rebounded at 3137. The 3600-3800 area continued to fall after maintaining a wide range of shocks.
The specific trend is mainly divided into the following stages: from the beginning to April of 2020, dragged down by the epidemic and the sharp decline in crude oil, the downstream resumption of work was slow and terminal demand was suppressed, resulting in weak overall market transactions, pta The price has been falling all the way and hit a new low since its listing.
From the beginning of May to the beginning of June, the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, the downstream market gradually recovered, and coupled with crude oil and cost support, PTA went out of a wave of market recovery. Later, the launch of the 2.5 million tons/year PTA device of Hengli Petrochemical Line 5 led to insufficient rebound momentum in the spot market, and the price stopped rising at 3,900.
From the third quarter to the beginning of November, the pta market followed an oblique “N”-shaped trend. The main reason is that foreign orders for autumn and winter models increased significantly from the end of July to the beginning of August, and the market rebounded. After that, although foreign orders were transferred to China, due to the deviation of the overall atmosphere of the terminal and polyester markets, insufficient upstream PX support, and new The Fengming Phase 2 2.2 million tons/year PTA device was put into operation, which accelerated the downward momentum of prices, causing prices to fall all the way.
At the end of the year, due to the sharp increase in the upstream PX price, the pta futures price recovered, and the subsequent duration needs further verification by the market.
Analysis of the supply and demand pattern of the PTA industry chain in the future market in 2021
1. PX cracking spreads continue to be squeezed and cost support is weak
The epidemic spans the whole year of 2020. Affected by the epidemic, global concerns about crude oil demand have intensified, causing market prices to decline, dragging down the focus of the downstream chemical market. Especially for naphtha and PX, which is constantly adding production capacity, prices have fallen. to historical lows. The profit dominance of the industrial chain has shifted from PX to PTA, mainly because the price of PX has fallen more than that of naphtha, causing the profit margin of PX cracking spread to continue to be squeezed. As of October 9, the PX cracking spread reached a historical low of $118.54/ton. The average cracking price spread in 2020 is US$200/ton, down 46.89 percentage points from the 19-year average of US$376.56/ton, and down 55.72 percentage points from the 18-year average of US$451.71/ton.
From the perspective of the upstream PX price center, apart from the drag of crude oil, PX prices have been declining. Another major factor is the release of new production capacity. As of the end of the year, the new PX production capacity in 2020 includes: the other half of the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million tons/year device, the first phase of Dongying Weilian Chemical’s 1 million tons/year device, and the first phase of Sinochem’s Quanzhou device of 800,000 tons/year. A total of 3.8 million tons, PX’s annual production capacity has also increased from 22.54 million tons in 2019 to 26.34 million tons in 2020, causing foreign dependence to plummet by 10 percentage points to 40%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2020 was 11.726 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.82% compared to the 12.535 million tons in the same period in 2019.
The PX production capacity in 2021 will reach 13 million tons. With the signing of the RCEP agreement, the price of subsequent imported PX will remain relatively low. Although it has been repaired, the probability of continuing to rise sharply is low and the bottom will remain wide. Mainly amplitude fluctuations. Therefore, the cost support for PTA is gradually weakening compared with previous years, and the support for the market outlook is also relatively weak, unless the joint production restriction model is started.
2. In 2021, the loose supply and demand pattern of PTA will still continue and the journey to the bottom will be far away
In 2020, high inventory, high operating rate, high processing fees and new The release of production capacity and resonance caused low fluctuations in PTA prices.
The current total downstream polyester production capacity reaches 64.37 million tons, while the pta production capacity is 57.09 million tons. According to the ratio of production costs (without considering the impact of new production capacity), that is, 0.855 tons of pta and 0.855 tons of pta. 0.355 tons of ethylene glycol can produce 1 ton of polyester. Based on the early polyester operating rate of 83.18% and the production capacity of 64.37 million tons, the required PTA production is estimated at 40.758 million tons; compared with the estimated PTA production of 43.2187 million tons since the beginning of 2020, theoretically there are 2.46 million Tons of PTA are in the library. The production capacity of PTA at the beginning of the year was 1.6 million tons. As of the end of November, the social inventory of domestic PTA was at a high level of more than 4.04 million tons, which further verified that PTA has continued to accumulate inventory in 2020, and the price has remained volatile at the bottom for a long time.
Judging from the production capacity that has been put into operation this year, PTA’s new production capacity is 8.4 million tons, and the planned production capacity in 2021 is as high as 15.4 million tons. The new refining era has begun, and the subsequent easing pattern remains unchanged. , the price bottoming cycle is relatively long. Unless manufacturers jointly limit production to reduce the operating rate, the overall destocking effect will be achieved. However, the processing fee of PTA will be high in 2020, and manufacturers will be more motivated to start production, which will promote the increase in the overall operating rate. The market will not be ruled out in 2021. Processing fees are the main focus, and the subsequent loose pattern will continue.
3. In 2021, the downstream and terminal markets may bottom out after bottoming out in 2020
From a demand perspective, in 2020 the downstream polyester film, Polyester bottle flakes, polyester staple fiber and polyester filament behave very differently. Except for polyester staple fiber, which still has good profits, filament yarns are basically in a state of loss, and the loss range and cycle are relatively long, and the price has also reached a historical low. The main reason is that the terminal market demand is weak, and the operating rate of polyester is at a relatively high level, resulting in relatively passive overall transactions and sluggish price performance.
This year, weaving orders are mostly supported by home textile orders, while clothing orders have decreased compared with last year. By the end of the year, some manufacturers had received orders from Middle Eastern countries.However, most manufacturers reported that orders have come to an end. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, from January to November this year, the national export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products reached 989.23 billion yuan, an increase of 33% (in RMB) compared with the same period last year. In the first eleven months, my country’s national clothing and clothing accessories exports reached 861.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% (in RMB) compared with the same period last year.
Entering the fourth quarter, masks, as the main anti-epidemic materials, have shown a weakening contribution to industry exports, and the growth rate of national textile exports has slowed down compared to before. Due to the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, many places have introduced corresponding lockdown policies. With the advent of vaccines in the later period, the demand for masks and medical supplies is expected to decline sharply in 2021 compared with 2020. The new downstream polyester production capacity in 2021 will be 8.42 million tons, but there are many uncertain factors about whether it can be put into production as expected throughout the year. For upstream PTA and PX, the growth rate is relatively slow.
However, with the formal signing of the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” (RCEP) by the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, my country’s textile and garment industry will see greater improvement. , prices may be able to get out of the trough in 2020, and there is momentum for a rebound, but the extent needs to be measured based on the later economic recovery. Moreover, new production capacity in 2021 will remain relatively low, which will provide great support to polyester prices.
2021 Market Outlook
Based on the entire polyester industry chain, after the vaccine is implemented and the economy recovers in 2021, downstream polyester and terminal textiles will The industry’s performance in the entire industry chain is relatively optimistic, and the signing of RCEP may drive downstream polyester out of the quagmire. Due to the release of new production capacity, PTA will be in a situation of oversupply for a long time. Superimposed on the accumulated inventory in 2020, the market destocking cycle will be relatively long. For upstream PX, due to the large-scale expansion of new production capacity and the decline in later tariffs on imported goods, PX prices will remain low for a long time. Unless manufacturers jointly limit production, the supporting role for PTA will gradually weaken.
Therefore, it is comprehensively judged that the PTA market in 2021 will be driven by the consumption of downstream polyester and terminal markets. In the later period, PTA prices may start a wave of restorative rebound, but the extent will need to be based on the new production capacity at each stage. It will be determined based on the actual release situation. </p
