The bad news is gone and the good news is rising – This is particularly suitable to describe the recent polyester market! Driven by the strong increase in international oil prices for seven consecutive years, the polyester industry chain, whether it is PX, PTA, or polyester filament, has shown an upward trend.
Especially polyester Filament finally survived the darkest period in the fourth quarter of 2018; after New Year’s Day, the mainstream price center of gravity rose strongly, market production and sales exceeded 100, which became the norm, and the high inventory pressure in the early stage was also alleviated; under the favorable stage, It seems that they have grasped the “last straw” before the Spring Festival!
Breaking ten consecutive negative spells, polyester filament production and sales achieved five consecutive increases!
116%, 156%, 101%, 118%, 130%, 150%… The mainstream production and sales of polyester filament finally ushered in a long-awaited The market has exceeded 100 for six consecutive days!
Since mid-to-late December, the mainstream production and sales of polyester yarns have been sluggish for nearly ten days. Except for the strong rebound in production and sales triggered by the surge in crude oil on December 27. Except for 250%, the rest of the production and sales are mostly hovering around 40-60%. After New Year’s Day, international oil prices rose for seven consecutive years and downstream purchasing enthusiasm boosted, breaking the early low production and sales and “one-day tour” dilemma. In recent days, the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market have been rising steadily, and over 100 has become the norm. It is said to be the longest sustained period of sales and production exceeding 100 since the second half of 2018.
After the international oil price plummeted 44%, it turned into a bull market and rose for the seventh consecutive time!
International oil prices plummeted 44% since the fourth quarter of last year, causing widespread distress among commodity funds and causing panic among OPEC and crude oil exporting countries; however, overnight, oil prices It has been sent back into the bull market, and investors who were hurriedly selling crude oil a month ago are back again. Since hitting an 18-month low of $42.36/barrel on Christmas Eve last year, U.S. WTI crude oil prices have rebounded 23%; the same is true for Brent crude oil, which has rebounded sharply by 22% since hitting bottom.
Crude oil, which has been falling for nearly four months, finally looks up! In recent days, international oil prices have continued to rise for seven consecutive years. WTI crude oil recently closed above US$52/barrel. As of the close on the 9th, U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at US$52.36/barrel, with the closing price rising 23% from the December low; Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.44 per barrel.
After PTA fell to the bottom, futures and spot prices rebounded strongly!
With the strong support of international oil prices, the spot market performance of polyester raw material PTA futures is also relatively strong. In terms of futures, PTA futures broke through 6,000 points intraday, a price increase of more than 400 points from the beginning of January; as of the 10th, the main 1905 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA futures closed at 6,002 yuan/ton, compared with the closing price on the 2nd , rose sharply by 414 points, and the increase reached 7.41% in just a few trading days. Driven by futures, PTA processing fees have reached nearly a thousand yuan.
In terms of spot prices, the PTA market is also rising. Its current price in the internal market has risen to about 6420-6500 yuan/ton, and transaction negotiations have risen to around 6270-6350 yuan/ton. In terms of manufacturers, Yisheng Petrochemical PTA’s main port cash withdrawal quotation rose, the internal spot listing price rose to 6,400 yuan/ton, and the US dollar selling price rose to 830 US dollars/ton. Hengli Petrochemical PTA main port self-pickup US dollar quotation: The internal selling price is concentrated at 6,850 yuan/ton from the main port pick-up, and the US dollar selling price rose to 830 US dollars/ton.
Inventories have fallen from high levels, and the pressure on polyester manufacturers has been relieved!
The last thing that must be mentioned is the inventory of polyester manufacturers. With the positive support of polyester filament production and sales rising for six consecutive years, the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers has finally been alleviated. Especially the high inventory during the year has finally fallen. For polyester manufacturers, it can be regarded as relieved. “A” big stone gives me more confidence to support the price!
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall polyester market inventory is currently around 11-18 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated between 8-12 days , FDY inventory is around 11-16 days, while DTY inventory is around 15-21 days.
Of course, in addition to the “strong” support from international oil prices and upstream polyester raw materials, the active procurement of downstream weaving manufacturers and texturing manufacturers is the most critical factor for the improvement of the polyester filament market. It is reported that in mid-January, the polyester market will usher in a large-scaleThe maintenance plan may further alleviate the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers. Whether the polyester filament market can run smoothly in the future, the most important thing is still to pay attention to and look forward to the pre-holiday stocking operation of the downstream market. </p