The butterfly effect is common to all industries. In the chemical industry, subtle changes in upstream and downstream, supply chains, policies and regulations, etc. may cause various impacts on prices, supply and demand.
Recently, there has been a lot of noise about the price increase of textile raw materials. I wonder if everyone feels numb to the word “price increase”. The price of textile raw materials in the upstream has skyrocketed, and the downstream is miserable. It can be said that flour is more expensive than bread, but it is still hard to find. It is said that more than 50% of the specifications require queuing to purchase, and some products are even more stressful.
It stands to reason that this is very good news for chemical fiber factories, but the prices of upstream raw materials such as caprolactam and ethylene glycol have increased. If it can be transmitted layer by layer, it will be fine, but it will When it comes to the step of yarn and gray fabric, it gets stuck: the price of chemical fiber is getting higher day by day, but the yarn and gray fabric are calm and motionless. Why, because the price cannot be raised!
Nylon staple fiber: leading the championship in November!
In November, driven by costs, the chemical fiber sector saw a significant increase in market prices, especially the good performance of various products in the nylon industry chain! Among the 14 commodities in the chemical fiber sector in November, a total of 12 commodities increased month-on-month. Among them, the top three commodities with the largest increase were nylon staple fiber (17.84%), nylon POY (11.92%), and nylon DTY. (7.09%).
As of the 30th, the domestic mainstream price of 1.5D nylon staple fiber was reported at 16,780 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 17% from the beginning of the month, a new high for the year, and a year-on-year increase of 4.74%. Since the beginning of this year, the market for nylon staple fiber has continued to decline, falling below 13,800 yuan/ton in mid-July, setting a new historical low in the past five years. Afterwards, it rebounded slightly, and after steady adjustments in August, September, and October, the market exploded in November. The main reason is: raw material prices continue to rise, and cost boosts drive the entire industrial chain.
It is reported that nylon staple fiber has increased by 2040 in half a month, which is simply crazy for the textile industry with meager profits. Has the relevant yarn increased by 2,000? In the original words of the person in charge of a large yarn mill in Shandong: “If you increase the price by 200 per ton, go and ask the downstream customers if you want it?”
Polyester staple fiber: The rise is moderate, but strong!
OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have reached an agreement to reduce production. The polyester market has risen by 400-500 yuan since the weekend, and the quotations of polyester shorts manufacturers have followed suit. The mainstream price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 8,300-8,500 yuan/ton ex-factory, with some prices slightly higher. Fujian polyester staple fiber manufacturers raised their quotations, with 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber mainstream quoted at 8,400-8,500 yuan/ton short delivery, and the main force of PTA futures closed up by 188.
The quotations of polyester shorts in Shandong and Hebei markets have risen several times. The mainstream price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester shorts was finally quoted at 8400-8650 yuan/ton for delivery within the province. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The price of pure polyester yarn in the Shengze market has been raised, and it is still expected to rise due to raw materials in the later period. The mainstream price of 32S is around 12,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 45s is around 13,300 yuan/ton. The rising momentum of polyester raw materials has not diminished, and polyester prices may rise more easily than fall in the short term.
Compared with nylon, the supply of polyester is more sufficient after all, and the increase is relatively moderate compared to nylon. However, at present, the inventories of many polyester suppliers are generally low, and the subsequent increase is still relatively strong. !
Yarn prices are going up! !
The surge in raw materials and the increasingly severe pressure on environmental protection have caused the production costs of downstream yarn mills to gradually increase, and profits are gradually being squeezed. Today, yarn factories can only raise prices to ensure factory profits.
The market price of polyester yarn continued to rise on December 12. The current market price of 32S pure polyester yarn is 12,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% from the previous day’s price and a year-on-year increase of 18.51%.
The market price of polyester yarn continues to rise due to the rise in polyester yarn, but market trading is still sparse. The price of pure polyester yarn in the Shengze market is temporarily stable, and the prices of some specifications have been raised. Currently, the mainstream price of 21s pure polyester yarn is around 11,300 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 32S is around 12,200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 45s is around 13,200 yuan/ton. The actual order is negotiated. The price of pure polyester yarn in Qianqing market has been increased by 100 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream price of 32S pure polyester Dahua yarn is 12,300 yuan/ton, and shipments are average.
The rising trend of upstream polyester raw materials has not yet reached an inflection point. Under cost support, polyester staple fiber is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. However, after digesting the high upstream quotation of the day, polyester yarn mills will definitely increase prices in the later period to transfer the high cost pressure to the downstream. Market prices are expected to move significantly higher in the near future. Some yarn mills have informed downstream customers in advance that they should ask for quotations in advance before placing orders, because in the next period of time, the price of yarn may also change every day.
The weaving boss is helpless! It doesn’t matter if you sell it, or it doesn’t matter if you don’t sell it!
Since the beginning of this week, the voice of rising prices has been heard endlessly. Textile bosses have just�The initial resistance, abuse, helplessness, acceptance, and then numbness and self-deprecation. The surge in raw materials has brought great pressure to the textile industry. In an instant, the circle of friends was filled with all kinds of textile jokers, but they truly wrote about the “mental journey” of textile people now!
It is understood that the current increase in the cost of upstream raw materials has caused some orders to enter the ranks of losses. However, in order to retain skilled workers, maintain survival, and complete orders at the end of the year, most textile companies can only insist on production, and the profits they managed to save in the peak season in the early stage Also started to regurgitate.
Many manufacturers have also tried to raise the prices of gray fabrics: as of December, polyester taffeta and pongee series have generally been raised by 0.10-0.15 yuan/meter; Oxford cloth and peach skin series have been raised by 0.20 yuan/meter… But weaving manufacturers He expressed that he did not dare to increase the price of gray fabrics too much, because if the price increase was too high, it would be tantamount to shutting out customers.
Raw materials have increased by hundreds or thousands, while gray fabrics can only keep up with the increase by 1 or 2 cents. The weaving manufacturers’ insignificant increase method cannot make up for the “cost penalty” caused by the raw materials. “We have only raised the price by a few cents symbolically, but for some orders from old customers, there is no way to increase the price. After all, we have been cooperating with each other, so even if we lose money, we can only continue to do it.” A textile boss in Wujiang area said .
In a market economy, the rise and fall of prices is not scary. What is scary is the sharp rise and fall. The recent surge in nylon and polyester has caused the textile index to continue to rise. In the short term, these two major industrial chains are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and are expected to support them until at least the end of December. It is understood that with the current surge in raw materials, many middlemen have sensed profits and have joined the ranks of hoarding “rare goods.”
When the production freeze agreement is officially implemented after New Year’s Day, it will still depend on international trends and the specific execution capabilities of the parties to the agreement. However, the increasing production costs have become an indisputable trend in the industry, and the downstream price increases can be said to be “forced to have no choice”!
At the same time, the editor also reminds everyone that orders will decrease at the end of the year, so you need to pay attention to inventory control to prevent the market from taking a sharp turn!
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